Slower economic growth is likely ahead with risk of a recession rising, according to the CNBC Fed Survey
Portfolio Pulse from
The March CNBC Fed Survey reveals growing economic uncertainty, with recession probability increasing to 36% from 23% in January. Respondents have lowered 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.4%, primarily due to concerns over trade policies and fiscal uncertainties. Most experts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least twice this year, reflecting worries about potential economic slowdown.

March 18, 2025 | 11:30 am
News sentiment analysis
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NEGATIVE IMPACT
Survey indicates first decline in S&P 500 outlook since September, reflecting growing concerns about economic growth and trade policies.
Declining economic growth forecast, increased recession probability, and trade policy uncertainties are likely to negatively impact broad market sentiment and S&P 500 performance.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 85
RELEVANCE 90