Trump's tariff fight may be making this early recession signal go haywire
Portfolio Pulse from
The bond market is experiencing unusual volatility in retail sector junk bonds, potentially indicating early recession signals. Consumer confidence is declining, and trade tensions from Trump's tariff policies are complicating traditional economic indicators. The bond market selloff is currently concentrated in retail, suggesting sector-specific challenges.
March 18, 2025 | 11:30 am
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NEGATIVE IMPACT
The SPDR S&P Retail ETF might experience increased volatility due to declining consumer confidence and bond market stress in the retail sector.
Declining consumer confidence, bond market selloff in retail, and trade policy uncertainties suggest potential negative short-term pressure on retail stocks and ETFs.
CONFIDENCE 70
IMPORTANCE 75
RELEVANCE 80