Tariffs have raised the probability of a U.S. recession to around 35%: Pimco managing director
Portfolio Pulse from
Alec Kersman, managing director and head of Asia-Pacific at Pimco, suggests that current trade tariffs have elevated the probability of a U.S. recession to approximately 35% in 2024. This assessment highlights growing economic uncertainty stemming from ongoing trade policy challenges.
March 18, 2025 | 11:30 am
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NEGATIVE IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF could experience market volatility as Pimco suggests a 35% recession probability, potentially impacting broad market sentiment.
A potential recession would likely cause market-wide sell-offs, negatively impacting the S&P 500 index and consequently the SPY ETF. The high probability suggested by a respected financial institution like Pimco increases market uncertainty.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 90
RELEVANCE 80