Jobs Report Preview: Could October Nonfarm Payrolls Defy Hurricane Disruptions, Strikes And Election Uncertainty?
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
The upcoming October jobs report is highly anticipated, with expectations of a slowdown in nonfarm payroll growth due to factors like hurricanes and strikes. Economists predict a decrease from 254,000 jobs in September to 113,000 in October. The Boeing strike and hurricanes are expected to impact the numbers, while government hiring for elections may provide a boost. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, with wages growing at a slower pace. Recent ADP data suggests strong private employment growth, which could indicate a positive surprise in the official report. Previous jobs reports have influenced market sentiment, with the S&P 500 reacting to employment data.
October 31, 2024 | 5:16 pm
News sentiment analysis
Sort by:
Ascending
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The Boeing strike is expected to have reduced October payrolls by 41,000 jobs, impacting the overall employment figures.
The Boeing strike is a significant factor in the expected reduction of nonfarm payrolls for October, as it directly contributed to a decrease of 41,000 jobs. This impact is substantial enough to affect Boeing's short-term stock performance negatively.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The S&P 500, tracked by SPY, has shown sensitivity to jobs reports, with past reports causing significant market movements.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has historically reacted to jobs reports, with declines following weaker-than-expected data and rallies on stronger reports. The upcoming October report could similarly impact SPY, depending on whether the data meets, exceeds, or falls short of expectations.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 60