Services Sector Surges In September, Raising Questions For Fed's November Rate Cut
Portfolio Pulse from Michael Cohen
The U.S. services sector showed strong growth in September, with the Services PMI reaching 54.9%, its highest since February 2023. This raises questions about the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate cut decision. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and long-dated Treasuries saw declines, while the U.S. dollar index rose.
October 03, 2024 | 2:54 pm
News sentiment analysis
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POSITIVE IMPACT
The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) rose 0.31% as strong services sector data suggests a potential smaller rate cut by the Fed, strengthening the U.S. dollar.
The robust services sector data implies a stronger economy, potentially leading to a smaller rate cut, which supports a stronger U.S. dollar, benefiting UUP.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) fell 0.3% as strong services data suggests a smaller Fed rate cut, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
The strong services data suggests a robust economy, potentially leading to a smaller rate cut, which reduces the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, impacting GLD.
CONFIDENCE 75
IMPORTANCE 55
RELEVANCE 65
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) fell 0.3% as strong services sector data raises concerns about the size of the Fed's rate cut, impacting tech-heavy indices.
The strong services data suggests a robust economy, which may lead to a smaller rate cut, negatively affecting growth-sensitive indices like QQQ.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 65
RELEVANCE 75
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) saw a 0.5% decline following the release of strong U.S. services sector data, which raises questions about the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision.
The strong services sector data suggests robust economic activity, which may lead to a smaller rate cut by the Fed, negatively impacting equities like SPY.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) declined 0.63% as strong services data suggests a smaller Fed rate cut, impacting long-term bond prices.
The robust services sector data implies a stronger economy, potentially leading to a smaller rate cut, which negatively impacts long-term bond prices like TLT.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70