Expert Says 'Something Is Cracking A Little Bit In The Economy' As He Points Out Lower Hiring Rate, Rising Credit Card Delinquencies: 'Does That Turn Into Recession? Not Necessarily'
Portfolio Pulse from Benzinga Neuro
Neil Irwin from Axios highlights economic warning signs such as rising credit card delinquencies and lower hiring rates, but does not predict an imminent recession. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase had anticipated a smaller decline in job gains, and Goldman Sachs has adjusted its recession forecast.
August 22, 2024 | 2:49 pm
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POSITIVE IMPACT
Goldman Sachs revised its U.S. recession forecast, reducing the probability to 20% after a weaker-than-expected jobs report. This indicates a more optimistic outlook despite recent economic warning signs.
Goldman Sachs' adjustment of recession probability suggests a more positive outlook, which could boost investor confidence and potentially lead to a short-term increase in stock price.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEUTRAL IMPACT
JPMorgan Chase expected a smaller decline in job gains than what occurred, indicating potential challenges in economic forecasting and adjustments.
JPMorgan's expectation of smaller job declines suggests potential forecasting challenges, but no immediate impact on stock price is expected.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 50
RELEVANCE 60