Is The Consumer OK? What We Know From Retailers About Spending In 2024
Portfolio Pulse from Natan Ponieman
Retailers are experiencing mixed consumer spending trends, with some sectors like leisure and housing seeing increased spending intentions, while clothing lags. Home Depot and Macy's report weaker sales, while TJX, Walmart, and Target show positive results. ETFs like XLY and VCR reflect these mixed trends.
August 21, 2024 | 8:22 pm
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NEGATIVE IMPACT
Home Depot reports a 3.3% decrease in comparable sales due to homeowners delaying renovations amid high interest rates.
Home Depot's sales decline is directly linked to consumer behavior in response to interest rates, indicating a likely negative short-term impact on stock price.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 80
RELEVANCE 90
NEGATIVE IMPACT
Macy's reports a 3.8% decline in sales, with consumers avoiding expensive items, leading to lowered guidance.
Macy's sales decline and lowered guidance suggest a negative short-term impact on its stock price due to consumer spending patterns.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 75
RELEVANCE 85
NEUTRAL IMPACT
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF shows similar mixed performance, up 1.3% on Wednesday but down 0.5% over the last month.
VCR's performance mirrors the mixed consumer spending trends, indicating a neutral short-term impact.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund reflects mixed retail trends, up 1.1% on Wednesday but down 1.3% over the last month.
XLY's performance reflects the mixed trends in consumer discretionary spending, with no clear short-term direction.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
POSITIVE IMPACT
Target reports a 2.7% increase in sales, beating expectations, with positive trends in discretionary categories.
Target's sales growth and positive trends in key categories suggest a positive short-term impact on its stock price.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 75
RELEVANCE 85
POSITIVE IMPACT
TJX Companies reports a 4% increase in store sales, driven by higher customer transactions, leading to raised guidance.
TJX's positive sales growth and raised guidance indicate a likely positive short-term impact on its stock price.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
Walmart reports a 4.8% increase in sales, beating expectations and raising guidance, with shares up 9%.
Walmart's strong sales performance and raised guidance suggest a positive short-term impact on its stock price.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 85
RELEVANCE 95