Interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve have shifted from a 50-basis-point cut to a more modest 25-basis-point cut due to conflicting economic data. The CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool shows a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. Retail sales surged 1% in July, and unemployment claims fell, indicating a robust economy. Treasury yields have experienced significant volatility, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) rallying 9% before pulling back 3%.