Trump's Big Mistake? FiveThirtyEight Now Shows Biden As Favorite To Win Election Following J.D. Vance VP Pick, Despite Polling Data
Portfolio Pulse from Aaron Bry
FiveThirtyEight's predictive model now shows President Joe Biden as the favorite to win the 2024 election, despite recent polling data favoring Donald Trump. The model gives Biden a 53% chance of winning, while Nate Silver's new site, Silver Bulletin, shows Biden's chances at 27%. Silver criticizes Trump's VP pick of J.D. Vance, suggesting it may hurt Trump's overall chances. FiveThirtyEight was acquired by ESPN in 2013 and later transferred to ABC News, both under Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS).
July 16, 2024 | 10:17 pm
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POSITIVE IMPACT
FiveThirtyEight, now under ABC News and owned by Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS), shows Biden as the favorite to win the 2024 election. This could impact Disney's media credibility and viewership.
FiveThirtyEight's prediction favoring Biden could enhance the credibility and viewership of ABC News, potentially benefiting Disney's media segment. However, the impact on Disney's stock price is likely to be moderate.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70