'Macro Volatility Is Coming Back,' Analyst Warns: 'You Better Watch Out' Ahead Of US Elections
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
Alfonso Peccatiello, an economist, warns of increased macro volatility due to the upcoming U.S. presidential elections and the potential for a Donald Trump victory. He highlights the current low volatility in the S&P 500 and VIX but suggests that suppressed economic cycles and policy risks could lead to a turbulent market environment.
July 15, 2024 | 4:29 pm
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NEGATIVE IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is currently trading near record highs, but economist Alfonso Peccatiello warns of potential increased volatility due to upcoming U.S. elections and policy risks associated with a potential Trump victory.
The SPY is directly impacted by macroeconomic conditions and political events. Peccatiello's warning about increased volatility due to the U.S. elections and potential Trump policies suggests a likely negative impact on SPY in the short term.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 90
RELEVANCE 100
POSITIVE IMPACT
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently below 13, indicating low market volatility. However, economist Alfonso Peccatiello warns that macro volatility is likely to increase due to the upcoming U.S. elections and potential Trump policies.
The VIX measures market volatility and is likely to rise if Peccatiello's predictions of increased macro volatility due to the U.S. elections and potential Trump policies come true.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 85
RELEVANCE 100