June Jobs Report Preview: Cooling Labor Market Trends May Further Bolster Rate Cut Hopes
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
The June Jobs Report is expected to show a cooling labor market, with nonfarm payroll growth declining and earnings momentum slowing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the labor market is cooling appropriately, which may bolster hopes for rate cuts. Conflicting data from ADP and services sector surveys suggest potential surprises. Market reactions indicate increased bets on rate cuts, with Treasury yields falling and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) rising.
July 03, 2024 | 3:56 pm
News sentiment analysis
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NEGATIVE IMPACT
ADP's National Employment Report showed 150,000 job additions in June, below expectations, indicating a cooling labor market.
ADP's report showing fewer job additions than expected suggests a cooling labor market, which could negatively impact ADP's stock in the short term.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) rose 1.4% as lower yields and a weaker dollar boosted gold prices.
Lower yields and a weaker dollar typically boost gold prices, positively impacting GLD in the short term.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 75
RELEVANCE 70
POSITIVE IMPACT
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose 1.4% as Treasury yields fell, driven by increased bets on Fed rate cuts.
Falling Treasury yields and increased bets on rate cuts are positive for TLT, leading to a short-term price increase.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 80
RELEVANCE 70