May Inflation Report Clashes With Fed Meeting: Traders Brace For Volatile Wednesday
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
The May CPI report and the FOMC meeting are set to occur on the same day, potentially causing market volatility. April's data showed easing inflation, aligning with forecasts. Economists expect the headline annual inflation rate to hold steady at 3.4%, with core inflation at 3.6%. The report will influence the Fed's stance on interest rates, with a softer reading supporting potential rate cuts. Previous CPI reports have triggered rallies in stocks, bonds, gold, and speculative assets.
June 11, 2024 | 4:12 pm
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POSITIVE IMPACT
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) rose by 1.3% following April's CPI report. The May CPI report could similarly impact GLD, especially if inflation data aligns with or is lower than expectations.
April's CPI report led to a 1.3% rise in GLD. If May's CPI data shows similar or lower inflation, GLD could see a positive impact.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) rallied 1.6% after April's CPI report. The May CPI report could have a similar effect on QQQ, particularly if inflation data meets or is below expectations.
April's CPI report led to a 1.6% rise in QQQ. If May's CPI data shows similar or lower inflation, QQQ could see a positive impact.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose by 1.2% following April's CPI report. The May CPI report could similarly impact SPY, especially if inflation data aligns with or is lower than expectations.
April's CPI report led to a 1.2% rise in SPY. If May's CPI data shows similar or lower inflation, SPY could see a positive impact.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose by 1.4% following April's CPI report. The May CPI report could similarly impact TLT, especially if inflation data aligns with or is lower than expectations.
April's CPI report led to a 1.4% rise in TLT. If May's CPI data shows similar or lower inflation, TLT could see a positive impact.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) fell by 0.7% following April's CPI report. The May CPI report could similarly impact UUP, especially if inflation data aligns with or is lower than expectations.
April's CPI report led to a 0.7% fall in UUP. If May's CPI data shows similar or lower inflation, UUP could see a negative impact.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80