What A Biden Or Trump Victory Might Mean For The Energy Sector
Portfolio Pulse from Surbhi Jain
The 2024 U.S. Presidential election could significantly impact the energy sector, with different outcomes for clean and traditional energy depending on whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins. A Biden presidency with a split Congress is seen as low risk for clean energy, while a Trump presidency with a Republican Congress poses the highest risk. Investors in various energy ETFs should consider these potential shifts.
May 30, 2024 | 1:53 pm
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POSITIVE IMPACT
The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) could benefit from a Trump presidency due to potential regulatory easing and increased resource access. However, ongoing legal and political challenges could still shape the regulatory landscape.
A Trump presidency could ease regulations and increase resource access, benefiting traditional energy stocks. However, legal and political challenges could still impact the regulatory environment.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 70
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) could see positive impacts from a Trump presidency due to potential regulatory easing and increased resource access. However, geopolitical tensions could pose risks to crude supply and refiner margins.
A Trump presidency could ease regulations and increase resource access, benefiting traditional energy stocks. However, geopolitical tensions could impact crude supply and refiner margins.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 70
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) could benefit from a Trump presidency due to potential regulatory easing and increased resource access. However, ongoing legal and political challenges could still shape the regulatory landscape.
A Trump presidency could ease regulations and increase resource access, benefiting traditional energy stocks. However, legal and political challenges could still impact the regulatory environment.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) could face varying risks depending on the election outcome. A Biden presidency with a split Congress is favorable, while a Trump presidency with a Republican Congress poses the highest risk.
A Biden presidency with a split Congress would maintain the status quo, benefiting clean energy incentives. A Trump presidency with a Republican Congress could partially repeal the IRA, posing risks to clean energy investments.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 80
RELEVANCE 80
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) could see varying impacts based on the election outcome. A Biden presidency could support infrastructure development, while a Trump presidency could create uncertainty until policy clarity emerges.
A Biden presidency could support infrastructure development, benefiting the fund. A Trump presidency could create uncertainty until policy clarity emerges.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 60
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) could be affected by the election outcome. A Biden presidency with a split Congress is favorable, while a Trump presidency with a Republican Congress poses the highest risk.
A Biden presidency with a split Congress would support clean energy incentives, while a Trump presidency with a Republican Congress could partially repeal the IRA, posing risks to clean energy investments.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 80
RELEVANCE 80
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN) could see different impacts based on the election. A Biden presidency with a split Congress is low risk, while a Trump presidency with a Republican Congress is high risk.
A Biden presidency with a split Congress would likely maintain clean energy incentives, while a Trump presidency with a Republican Congress could partially repeal the IRA, impacting clean energy investments.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 80
RELEVANCE 80
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) is less affected by election outcomes due to its focus on regulated utilities. However, a Biden re-election could be a catalyst for renewables to regain ground lost in 2023.
Regulated utilities are less sensitive to election outcomes. However, a Biden re-election could support renewables, benefiting the fund.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 60
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) is less affected by election outcomes due to its focus on regulated utilities. However, a Biden re-election could be a catalyst for renewables to regain ground lost in 2023.
Regulated utilities are less sensitive to election outcomes. However, a Biden re-election could support renewables, benefiting the fund.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 60