Producer Inflation Tops Forecasts In February, Signals Anxiety Over Price Pressure Resurgence (UPDATED)
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for February rose by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing expectations and January's 0.3% increase, signaling potential inflationary pressures. Annual PPI also exceeded forecasts at 1.6%. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% monthly and 2% annually, both above expectations. This data follows a consumer inflation report exceeding forecasts, challenging Federal Reserve's rate policy adjustments. Market reactions included a slight increase in 2-year yields and the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP), while futures on major U.S. indices trimmed gains.
March 14, 2024 | 12:34 pm
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NEGATIVE IMPACT
Futures on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) trimmed gains in the premarket session following the PPI report.
The trimming of gains in SPY futures suggests a cautious market response to the higher-than-expected PPI, with concerns over inflation potentially affecting short-term market sentiment.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) closed at all-time highs prior to the PPI report, outperforming the cap-weighted index.
RSP's performance prior to the PPI report indicates strong market positioning, but the report's implications on future inflation and Fed policy could influence short-term movements.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) rose by 0.2% following the PPI report, indicating a stronger dollar.
The rise in UUP reflects market reaction to higher-than-expected PPI, suggesting a stronger dollar as investors anticipate potential Federal Reserve actions to combat inflation.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80