Could The Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Signal An End To The Market Bull Run?
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
The upcoming release of the January Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index is highly anticipated, serving as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect the annual PCE rate to decrease from 2.6% in December 2023 to 2.4% in January 2024, potentially marking the lowest rate since February 2021. The core PCE is also expected to decrease slightly. The market is currently pricing in a significant chance of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. An unexpectedly high PCE report could pressure stocks and decrease the likelihood of early rate cuts, while a lower-than-expected report could boost equity markets. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) previously fell 1.4% following a hotter-than-expected January CPI report.
February 28, 2024 | 4:25 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is directly impacted by the anticipation and outcome of the PCE report, with its performance closely tied to market reactions to inflation data and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Given the SPY's previous 1.4% drop following the January CPI report, the ETF is sensitive to inflation data and Fed policy shifts. The expected PCE report could either validate the market's current pricing of future rate cuts or lead to adjustments based on the data's implications for inflation and monetary policy. The direct mention of SPY's recent performance in relation to inflation data underscores its relevance and potential volatility in response to the upcoming PCE report.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 85
RELEVANCE 90