What If The Fed Does Not Cut Rates This Year? Inflation's Stickiest Mile To 2% Target
Portfolio Pulse from Neil Dennis
The article discusses the potential impact on markets if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in 2024, considering recent inflation data and labor market strength. It highlights risks from supply chain issues, wage growth, and fiscal policy challenges. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), Meta Platforms Inc (META), the Invesco Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), and the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) are mentioned in relation to their potential reactions to prolonged high interest rates.
February 27, 2024 | 2:42 pm
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POSITIVE IMPACT
The Invesco Dollar Index Bullish Fund has gained 3.3% in 2024, potentially benefiting further from delayed Fed rate cuts.
UUP benefits from a stronger dollar, which is likely if the Fed delays rate cuts, making dollar-denominated assets more attractive.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 85
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The United States Oil Fund ETF, up nearly 10% in 2024, could be impacted by broader economic and geopolitical developments.
USO's performance is tied to oil prices, which are influenced by a complex mix of economic conditions and geopolitical events.
CONFIDENCE 75
IMPORTANCE 65
RELEVANCE 70
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF may face challenges if the dollar strengthens due to delayed Fed rate cuts, making gold more expensive.
A higher dollar, resulting from postponed Fed rate cuts, increases the cost of dollar-denominated gold, potentially hurting GLD.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 75
RELEVANCE 85
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF may face declines if the Fed delays rate cuts, affecting small- and mid-cap companies.
Small- and mid-cap companies, which IWM tracks, are more sensitive to interest rate changes due to their reliance on loans for growth.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 80
RELEVANCE 90
NEGATIVE IMPACT
Meta Platforms Inc could see profit taking hits if the Fed delays rate cuts, affecting equity markets.
As part of the tech sector, META is susceptible to negative impacts from prolonged high interest rates on equity markets.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 75
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
Nvidia Corporation could experience profit taking hits if equity markets sell off due to delayed Fed rate cuts.
As a highly indebted tech stock, NVDA is vulnerable to market downturns caused by extended periods of high interest rates.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 75
RELEVANCE 80