S&P 500 Starts Strong In January: What This Might Mean For Rest Of 2024
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
The S&P 500's 1.6% increase in January 2024 suggests a positive outlook for the year, based on historical data since 1957 showing over 80% probability of positive returns when January's performance exceeds 1.5%. However, February's performance is less predictable, with only a little over 60% chance of following January's positive trend. Notably, in election years with January returns over 1.5%, all instances led to positive 11-month returns. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) saw a 1.3% rise on the first trading day of February.
February 01, 2024 | 10:20 pm
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The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) experienced a 1.3% increase on the first trading day of February 2024, following the S&P 500's positive performance in January.
Given the historical correlation between the S&P 500's performance in January and the market's overall performance for the year, SPY's increase in early February aligns with expectations for a positive year. The ETF directly tracks the S&P 500, making its performance highly relevant to these historical trends.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 90
RELEVANCE 100