February Historically A Flat Month For Stocks, Small Caps Tend To Outperform
Portfolio Pulse from Cory Mitchell
Historical data over the last 20 years shows February to be a flat month for stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a 0.2% gain. The SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) reflects this trend. The NYSE Composite has had mixed results, averaging a slight loss. The Nasdaq 100, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), has seen a 0.2% average gain, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has outperformed with a 0.6% average gain in February. Seasonality is backward-looking and does not guarantee future performance.
January 30, 2024 | 1:43 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) correlates with the Nasdaq 100's average February gain of 0.2% over the last 20 years.
QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100, which has an average gain of 0.2% in February historically. The neutral score reflects the uncertainty of seasonality as a forecasting tool.
CONFIDENCE 70
IMPORTANCE 50
RELEVANCE 80
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) typically reflects the S&P 500's average gain of 0.2% in February based on historical data.
SPY directly tracks the S&P 500, which has a historical average gain of 0.2% in February. However, seasonality is not a reliable predictor for future performance, hence the neutral score.
CONFIDENCE 70
IMPORTANCE 50
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has historically outperformed in February, with a 65% chance of gains and an average return of 0.6%.
IWM has a stronger historical performance in February compared to SPY and QQQ, with a higher average gain and success rate. The positive score is due to its historical outperformance, but with caution due to the backward-looking nature of seasonality.
CONFIDENCE 70
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 90