88% Chance Of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval, Say Prediction Market Traders: $1.4M Bet Looking For SEC's Green Light
Portfolio Pulse from Khyathi Dalal
Prediction market traders on Polymarket believe there is an 88% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by the SEC by January 15, with a 77% chance of approval on Wednesday. The market has seen over $8.5 million in volume, with one trader betting $1.4 million on the approval. The SEC's account was hacked on Tuesday, causing fluctuations in the approval odds. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expects approval on Wednesday, with preparations underway at Bloomberg.
January 10, 2024 | 4:57 pm
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POSITIVE IMPACT
The potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC could significantly impact the price of Bitcoin, with high anticipation reflected in the prediction markets.
The high probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval as indicated by prediction market traders suggests a positive sentiment that could drive Bitcoin's price up in the short term. The large bets and trading volume show strong interest and potential market impact. However, the recent hack of the SEC's account and the possibility of a last-minute delay introduce some uncertainty.
CONFIDENCE 75
IMPORTANCE 90
RELEVANCE 100