Fed Pivot Or Pushback? Markets Poised For Tense Policy Finale To 2023
Portfolio Pulse from Neil Dennis
Markets are anticipating the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2023, which could signal either a pivot to a dovish stance or a pushback maintaining a hawkish stance. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) have rallied significantly in 2023, while tech stocks like AMD, AVGO, INTC, and NVDA have seen substantial gains. A pivot could further boost equities, while pushback might lead to profit-taking and a stronger dollar, benefiting the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). Analysts are suspecting pushback, with the Fed likely to reiterate its 'higher-for-longer' stance.
December 13, 2023 | 5:03 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
AMD, with a 112% gain in 2023, could see its rally continue with a Fed pivot or face profit-taking if there's pushback.
AMD's stock performance is closely tied to market sentiment influenced by Fed policy, with potential for both upside and downside.
CONFIDENCE 60
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 60
NEUTRAL IMPACT
AVGO, up 95% in 2023, could benefit from a dovish Fed pivot or retract if the Fed remains hawkish.
AVGO's future stock movement will be influenced by the Fed's policy direction, with a dovish pivot likely aiding its growth.
CONFIDENCE 60
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 60
NEUTRAL IMPACT
INTC, which has risen 66% in 2023, could see continued growth with a Fed pivot or a decline with pushback.
INTC's stock could be impacted by the Fed's decision, with a dovish pivot potentially supporting further gains.
CONFIDENCE 60
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 60
NEUTRAL IMPACT
NVDA's massive 230% gain in 2023 could be bolstered by a Fed pivot or tempered by pushback.
NVDA's performance is highly sensitive to Fed policy, with the potential for continued rally or a pullback based on the upcoming decision.
CONFIDENCE 60
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 60
POSITIVE IMPACT
QQQ, tracking the NASDAQ, is up 50% in 2023 and could extend gains with a dovish Fed pivot.
The QQQ ETF would benefit from a dovish pivot as it is heavily weighted towards tech stocks, which are sensitive to interest rate changes.
CONFIDENCE 70
IMPORTANCE 75
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
SPY, mirroring the S&P 500, has rallied 21% in 2023 and could continue to rise if the Fed pivots to a dovish stance.
A dovish pivot by the Fed would likely lead to continued low interest rates, which is generally positive for equity markets and ETFs like SPY.
CONFIDENCE 70
IMPORTANCE 75
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
UUP, down 2% in 2023, could rise if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a stronger dollar.
A hawkish stance from the Fed would likely lead to a stronger dollar, benefiting UUP, which tracks the dollar's performance.
CONFIDENCE 65
IMPORTANCE 65
RELEVANCE 70