Will November's 'Turkey Rally' Set Stage For December's 'Santa Claus Rally' For Stocks?
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
November 2023 saw a significant 'Turkey Rally' with the S&P 500 Index, tracked by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), rising 8.9%. This rally, the 18th-best monthly performance since 1950, was driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024 due to declining inflation. Historically, December has been positive for the S&P 500, but a strong November may lead to a more subdued 'Santa Claus Rally'. LPL Research's George Smith suggests that despite a potentially quieter December, the strong November performance could indicate a bullish 2024, with historical data showing substantial gains following similar monthly rises and the end of losing streaks.
December 02, 2023 | 2:13 pm
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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) experienced an 8.9% increase in November, potentially indicating a bullish outlook for 2024 despite a possibly quieter December. Historical trends suggest strong monthly gains may lead to significant returns in the following year.
The article directly mentions SPY's performance, which reflects the S&P 500 Index. The historical data provided by LPL Research's George Smith suggests that strong monthly gains, like those seen in November, often precede a bullish market in the following year. This could lead to increased investor confidence and a potential rise in SPY's price in the short term. However, the mention of a potentially subdued December rally and the shifts in market positioning to slightly bullish could introduce some caution among investors.
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