The stock price of Chicago Rivet & Machine is likely to decrease in the short term by the amount of the dividend, as stocks typically drop by the dividend amount on the ex-dividend date. This is a common occurrence and is expected as it reflects the payout of the dividend to shareholders. The relevance is high as the news is directly about CVR's dividend payout. The importance is significant for investors interested in dividend payments or those looking to buy the stock at a slightly lower price. The confidence level is high due to the predictable nature of stock price movements on ex-dividend dates.