Consumer Confidence Rises More Than Predicted In November, But An Early Recession Signal Flashes
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
U.S. consumer confidence rose to 102 in November, exceeding expectations, despite concerns of a potential recession signaled by the Expectations Index remaining below 80 for the third consecutive month. The increase was mainly among older households, while confidence among those aged 35-54 declined. Inflation expectations decreased slightly, and the labor market outlook improved modestly. The U.S. dollar index saw a minor increase, and stock markets had a limited response, with SPY and QQQ both dropping by 0.1%.
November 28, 2023 | 3:45 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
Invesco QQQ Trust experienced a slight decrease of 0.1% in response to the consumer confidence data, reflecting a subdued short-term impact on the ETF.
QQQ's slight decrease indicates that the market is not significantly moved by the consumer confidence report, balancing the positive news against ongoing economic uncertainties, resulting in a neutral short-term impact on the ETF.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 50
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust saw a marginal decline of 0.1% following the consumer confidence report, indicating a muted short-term impact.
The SPY's minor decline suggests that while the consumer confidence report was positive, concerns about a potential recession and the mixed economic signals are keeping investors cautious, leading to a neutral short-term impact on the ETF.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 50
RELEVANCE 70