Record Black Friday Splurge But Data From China Tempers Stock Market Bullishness
Portfolio Pulse from The Arora Report
Consumers spent a record $9.8B online on Black Friday, up 7.5% from last year, with overall sales rising 2.5% according to Mastercard. Foot traffic in stores also increased by 2.1%. Cyber Monday is expected to generate about $12B in online sales. Stocks of Affirm Holdings Inc and Shopify Inc are being bought by investors due to their roles in e-commerce and buy now pay later services. However, enthusiasm is tempered by data from China showing a 7.8% fall in October Industrial Profits. Money flows are positive for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla, but negative for Alphabet and Meta Platforms, and mixed for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust. Gold is above $2000, with buying from the momo crowd. Oil is lower due to OPEC+ disagreements, and Bitcoin is range-bound.
November 27, 2023 | 6:08 pm
News sentiment analysis
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POSITIVE IMPACT
Affirm Holdings Inc is likely to see a positive short-term impact due to record Black Friday sales and the use of buy now pay later services.
Affirm Holdings Inc is directly benefiting from the consumer trend of using buy now pay later services for Black Friday purchases, which could lead to increased revenue and positive investor sentiment.
CONFIDENCE 75
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
Shopify Inc may experience a short-term positive impact as investors are buying its stock due to its significant role in running e-commerce websites during high online sales periods like Black Friday.
Shopify's software powers many e-commerce websites, which likely saw increased traffic and sales during Black Friday, potentially leading to higher revenues and a boost in stock price.
CONFIDENCE 75
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEUTRAL IMPACT
Invesco QQQ Trust may experience mixed short-term impact due to positive money flows in tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla, but negative flows in Alphabet and Meta Platforms.
The mixed money flows in major tech companies that are part of the QQQ ETF's holdings could lead to a neutral short-term impact on the ETF's performance.
CONFIDENCE 70
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust may see mixed short-term impact due to overall market sentiment being affected by both record Black Friday sales and negative data from China.
While the record Black Friday sales suggest a positive outlook for the market, the negative data from China could temper investor enthusiasm, leading to a neutral short-term impact on SPY.
CONFIDENCE 70
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70