The investigation into Applied Materials for unlicensed shipments to SMIC suggests potential non-compliance with export controls, which could result in legal penalties, strained international relations, and a negative impact on investor sentiment. The direct involvement of AMAT in the investigation and the serious nature of the allegations justify the high relevance and importance scores. The score of -1 reflects the likely negative impact on the stock price in the short term, although the confidence is not at 100 due to the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the investigation.