October Jobs Report Expected To Show Dip — Here's How Markets May React
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
The October jobs market report is expected to show a decrease in non-farm payroll jobs from 336,000 in September to 180,000 in October, and a decrease in average hourly earnings from 4.2% to 4%. The report could affect traders' expectations on future Fed interest-rate moves. Previous reports have led to positive responses in the stock market and mixed responses in the bond market and U.S. Dollar Index.
November 02, 2023 | 4:50 pm
News sentiment analysis
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POSITIVE IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has shown positive responses to previous jobs reports, particularly when they exceeded expectations.
The SPY has historically reacted positively to strong jobs reports, as they indicate a healthy economy which is beneficial for the companies in the S&P 500. If the October report exceeds expectations, we could see a similar positive reaction.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has shown mixed responses to previous jobs reports, generally enduring losses when the reports exceeded expectations.
The TLT has historically reacted negatively to strong jobs reports, as they indicate a healthy economy which could lead to higher interest rates, negatively impacting bond prices. If the October report exceeds expectations, we could see a similar negative reaction.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80