Fed's Preferred Inflation Tracker To Hit Markets On Friday: Here Are 5 ETFs That Could Make Waves
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index for September, a key inflation metric watched by the Federal Reserve. Economists expect the headline PCE price index to rise 3.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM. The core PCE price index is forecasted to increase 3.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM. The market currently assigns a 98% probability to the Fed keeping rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting. However, higher PCE figures could increase the likelihood of a rate hike in December. Five ETFs that could be impacted are SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT), SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), and Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP).
October 26, 2023 | 6:45 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) could be affected by the PCE index release. Higher inflation could lead to a rate hike, potentially impacting the ETF.
The GLD ETF tracks the price of gold, which is sensitive to changes in the economic outlook. Higher inflation could lead to a rate hike, which could impact the ETF.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 75
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) could be affected by the PCE index release. Higher inflation could lead to a rate hike, potentially impacting the ETF.
The QQQ ETF tracks the NASDAQ-100, which is sensitive to changes in the economic outlook. Higher inflation could lead to a rate hike, which could impact the ETF.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 75
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) could be impacted by the PCE index release. Higher inflation could lead to a rate hike, potentially affecting the ETF.
The SPY ETF tracks the S&P 500, which is sensitive to changes in the economic outlook. Higher inflation could lead to a rate hike, which could impact the ETF.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 75
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) could be impacted by the PCE index release. Higher inflation could lead to a rate hike, potentially affecting the ETF.
The TLT ETF tracks long-term treasury bonds, which are sensitive to changes in the economic outlook. Higher inflation could lead to a rate hike, which could impact the ETF.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 75
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) could be impacted by the PCE index release. Higher inflation could lead to a rate hike, potentially affecting the ETF.
The UUP ETF tracks the performance of the US dollar against a basket of currencies. Higher inflation could lead to a rate hike, which could impact the ETF.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 75