Economists See Recession Risk Waning, End Of Fed Rate Hikes: How Could Treasury ETFs React To Yields?
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
Economists are increasingly optimistic about the U.S. economy, with a lowered recession probability forecast for the next year. They believe that the Federal Reserve has concluded its current cycle of interest rate hikes. Economists also predict improvements in inflation and lower Treasury yields. This could impact Treasury ETFs, which move inversely to yields. The performance of ETFs such as BondBloxx Bloomberg Two Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (NYSE:XTWO), BondBloxx Bloomberg Five Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (NYSE:XFIV), BondBloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (NYSE:XTEN), and BondBloxx Bloomberg Twenty Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (NYSE:XTWY) could be affected by these yield changes.
October 16, 2023 | 5:23 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
CME Group Inc.'s FedWatch tool reflects a 90% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in November. This could impact the company's market expectations.
The Fed's decision on interest rates can influence market expectations, which could impact CME's FedWatch tool and its perceived accuracy.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 50
RELEVANCE 50
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The BondBloxx Bloomberg Five Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (XFIV) could see changes in its net asset value due to predicted changes in Treasury yields.
As Treasury yields change, the net asset value of Treasury ETFs like XFIV can be impacted. The direction of the impact depends on whether yields rise or fall.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 100
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The BondBloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (XTEN) could see changes in its net asset value due to predicted changes in Treasury yields.
As Treasury yields change, the net asset value of Treasury ETFs like XTEN can be impacted. The direction of the impact depends on whether yields rise or fall.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 100
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The BondBloxx Bloomberg Two Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (XTWO) could see changes in its net asset value due to predicted changes in Treasury yields.
As Treasury yields change, the net asset value of Treasury ETFs like XTWO can be impacted. The direction of the impact depends on whether yields rise or fall.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 100
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The BondBloxx Bloomberg Twenty Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (XTWY) could see changes in its net asset value due to predicted changes in Treasury yields.
As Treasury yields change, the net asset value of Treasury ETFs like XTWY can be impacted. The direction of the impact depends on whether yields rise or fall.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 100