CPI Preview: Will Consumer Inflation Figures Shift Market Expectations On Fed's Rate Decision?
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
Markets are awaiting the release of September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, following an unexpected rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI). Despite this, market expectations for future interest rates remain steady, with a 92% chance of no rate change next month and a 72% chance of no change in December. Economists predict a decrease in the headline inflation rate from 3.7% to 3.6% and a 0.3% rise in the headline CPI. Goldman Sachs predicts a softer headline CPI at 3.55% and a 0.22% increase in core CPI. The August inflation report exceeded estimates but did not significantly impact risk sentiment.

October 11, 2023 | 4:19 pm
News sentiment analysis
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF held steady following the release of the August inflation report.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF held steady following the release of the August inflation report, indicating that the market did not react negatively to the higher-than-expected inflation figures.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Invesco QQQ Trust showed gains of 0.4% following the release of the August inflation report.
The Invesco QQQ Trust showed gains following the release of the August inflation report, indicating that the market did not react negatively to the higher-than-expected inflation figures.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up 0.1% following the release of the August inflation report.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up following the release of the August inflation report, indicating that the market did not react negatively to the higher-than-expected inflation figures.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF was up 0.1% following the release of the August inflation report.
The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF was up following the release of the August inflation report, indicating that the market did not react negatively to the higher-than-expected inflation figures.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund was up 0.3% following the release of the August inflation report.
The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund was up following the release of the August inflation report, indicating that the market did not react negatively to the higher-than-expected inflation figures.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund was up 0.8% following the release of the August inflation report.
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund was up following the release of the August inflation report, indicating that the market did not react negatively to the higher-than-expected inflation figures.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80