Crude oil prices have dropped over 12% recently due to producers lessening their short positions, signaling decelerating demand. This has led to a significant dynamic within economic cycles, potentially hinting at future shifts in rates. Refiners like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Valero (VLO) may need to recalibrate their refining processes due to shrinking margins. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report shows a decrease in refinery capacity utilization rates and an unexpected surge in motor gasoline inventories. The current spread correction between crude oil and gasoline is one of the most pronounced since 2008, which could indicate a decrease in treasury rates after 3-6 months.