A False Recession Signal Is Here: Analyst Torches Theory Around Industrial Stocks
Portfolio Pulse from Aaron Bry
Industrial stocks are being viewed as a potential recession sign, with the theory that struggling construction companies like Caterpillar Inc and Honeywell Inc could indicate a weak economy. However, Jessica Rabe, co-founder of Datatrek, argues that weakness in industrial stocks has not been a reliable recession indicator in the past. She also points out that much of the industrial sector's weakness comes from the top-10 holdings in the S&P Industrials Sector ETF, which are down more than 2% on average YTD. Lockheed Martin and RTX Corp, both top-10 holdings in the industrial sector ETF, are expected to see a significant regression in earnings in 2024 compared to 2023.

September 26, 2023 | 8:25 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
Caterpillar Inc is being watched as a potential recession sign, but this theory is disputed by Datatrek's co-founder.
While Caterpillar Inc is mentioned as a potential recession sign, the co-founder of Datatrek disputes this theory, arguing that industrial stocks have not been reliable recession indicators in the past.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
Honeywell Inc is being watched as a potential recession sign, but this theory is disputed by Datatrek's co-founder.
While Honeywell Inc is mentioned as a potential recession sign, the co-founder of Datatrek disputes this theory, arguing that industrial stocks have not been reliable recession indicators in the past.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEGATIVE IMPACT
Lockheed Martin, a top-10 holding in the S&P Industrials Sector ETF, is expected to see a significant regression in earnings in 2024 compared to 2023.
Lockheed Martin is expected to see a significant regression in earnings in 2024 compared to 2023, which could contribute to the overall weakness in the industrial sector.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
RTX Corp, a top-10 holding in the S&P Industrials Sector ETF, is expected to see a significant regression in earnings in 2024 compared to 2023.
RTX Corp is expected to see a significant regression in earnings in 2024 compared to 2023, which could contribute to the overall weakness in the industrial sector.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80