Consumer Confidence Wavers: Will Retail Stocks Face A Reckoning?
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
A Bloomberg survey indicates that over half of the participants expect U.S. personal consumption to drop by early 2024, marking the first quarterly dip post-pandemic. This could impact retail stocks, which have been booming in 2023. The SPDR Retail ETF (XRT), Carvana Co. (CVNA), Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) have all seen positive returns. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) have also surged, as have Tesla Inc. (TSLA), Royal Caribbean Cruise Ltd. (RCL), and Carnival Corp. (CCL). However, concerns over escalating borrowing costs, depleting consumer savings, and rising debt indicators could pose challenges.
September 11, 2023 | 2:30 pm
News sentiment analysis
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NEGATIVE IMPACT
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) has seen a 65% increase this year, but the predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could impact its future performance.
The predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could lead to decreased spending in the retail sector, potentially impacting the performance of Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN).
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) has seen a 132% increase this year, but the predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could impact its future performance.
The predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could lead to decreased spending in the retail sector, potentially impacting the performance of Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF).
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
Carnival Corp. (CCL) has seen nearly 90% growth year-to-date, but the predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could impact its future performance.
The predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could lead to decreased spending in the retail sector, potentially impacting the performance of Carnival Corp. (CCL).
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
Carvana Co. (CVNA) has seen an 800% surge year-to-date, but the predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could impact its future performance.
The predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could lead to decreased spending in the retail sector, potentially impacting the performance of Carvana Co. (CVNA).
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
Royal Caribbean Cruise Ltd. (RCL) has seen nearly 90% growth year-to-date, but the predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could impact its future performance.
The predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could lead to decreased spending in the retail sector, potentially impacting the performance of Royal Caribbean Cruise Ltd. (RCL).
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has surged this year, but the predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could impact its future performance.
The predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could lead to decreased spending in the retail sector, potentially impacting the performance of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has seen a 100% increase this year, but the predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could impact its future performance.
The predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could lead to decreased spending in the retail sector, potentially impacting the performance of Tesla Inc. (TSLA).
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) has surged by over 30% this year, but the predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could impact its future performance.
The predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could lead to decreased spending in the retail sector, potentially impacting the performance of the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY).
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) has shown positive returns this year, but a predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could impact its performance.
The predicted drop in U.S. personal consumption could lead to decreased spending in the retail sector, potentially impacting the performance of the SPDR Retail ETF (XRT).
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80