Why Goldman Sachs Is Increasingly Confident In Dodging Recession, Contrary To Wall Street Consensus
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
Goldman Sachs' U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius, has reduced the U.S. recession risk to 15%, down 5 percentage points from their previous estimate. The bank's optimism is based on several factors including anticipated resurgence in household real disposable income by 2024, robust job growth, and increasing real wages. Goldman Sachs also expects the Federal Reserve to take a measured approach with a gradual rate cut cycle starting in Q2 2024. The bank's equity and credit strategists suggest that both investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) bonds will offer excess returns in the upcoming period.
September 05, 2023 | 5:06 pm
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POSITIVE IMPACT
Goldman Sachs' optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy and its suggestion of potential excess returns in IG and HY bonds could boost its reputation and attract more clients.
Goldman Sachs' optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy and its suggestion of potential excess returns in IG and HY bonds could boost its reputation and attract more clients. This could potentially increase its revenues and positively impact its stock price.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 80
RELEVANCE 100
POSITIVE IMPACT
Goldman Sachs' suggestion of potential excess returns in high-yield (HY) bonds could increase demand for iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG).
Goldman Sachs' suggestion of potential excess returns in high-yield (HY) bonds could increase demand for iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG). This could potentially increase the ETF's price.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
Goldman Sachs' suggestion of potential excess returns in investment-grade (IG) bonds could increase demand for iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD).
Goldman Sachs' suggestion of potential excess returns in investment-grade (IG) bonds could increase demand for iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD). This could potentially increase the ETF's price.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80