Weak Seasonality Ahead In The Stock Market But Bulls Have A Good Argument
Portfolio Pulse from The Arora Report
The stock market is expected to experience weak seasonality in the coming months, with September being traditionally weak and October being the most volatile month. However, the S&P 500, represented by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), tends to perform positively in September when it's up more than 10% going into the month. Market mechanics are currently positive but can change quickly. Factors such as AI trends, consumer spending, economic data, and the upcoming Fed meeting will influence the market. ARM's IPO is ahead, and it's positioning itself as an AI company. Negative money flows are observed in major tech stocks and ETFs. China is likely to miss its 5% growth target unless a major stimulus program is initiated.
September 05, 2023 | 3:10 pm
News sentiment analysis
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NEGATIVE IMPACT
Negative money flows are observed in Apple in the early trade. However, Apple licenses ARM IP, which could be a positive factor.
Negative money flows in Apple could impact its stock price. However, its licensing of ARM IP could be a positive factor.
CONFIDENCE 70
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEGATIVE IMPACT
Negative money flows are observed in Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 in the early trade, which could impact its short-term performance.
Negative money flows in Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 could impact its short-term performance.
CONFIDENCE 70
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
POSITIVE IMPACT
ARM's upcoming IPO and its positioning as an AI company could attract investor interest. Major smartphone manufacturers, including Apple, license ARM IP.
ARM's upcoming IPO and its positioning as an AI company could attract investor interest. Its licensing to major smartphone manufacturers also adds to its appeal.
CONFIDENCE 75
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The S&P 500, represented by SPY, is expected to perform positively in September given its more than 10% rise going into the month. However, market mechanics can change quickly, potentially impacting the ETF's performance.
The S&P 500's performance going into September is a positive indicator for SPY. However, the market's volatility and changing mechanics can impact the ETF's performance.
CONFIDENCE 75
IMPORTANCE 80
RELEVANCE 90