US Retail Sales Accelerate, On Track For The Best Streak In Over A Year: Sector ETFs To Watch
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
The U.S. retail sales figures for July are expected to show a 0.4% increase, marking the fourth consecutive month of positive growth. This is expected to alleviate concerns of a recession, thanks to a robust labor market and receding inflation. The impact on sector ETFs will depend on the actual sales figures. Higher-than-expected sales may positively influence cyclical sectors like XLE, XLF, and XLY, while lower-than-expected sales may benefit defensive sectors like XLU, XLV, and XLP. Tech-related sectors like XLK and XLC could see mixed impacts.
August 14, 2023 | 3:31 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) could see mixed impact depending on the retail sales figures.
The impact on communication services sector ETFs like XLC could be mixed, as higher retail sales may boost overall risk appetite but also fuel speculation of elevated interest rates.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) could see mixed impact depending on the retail sales figures.
The impact on tech sector ETFs like XLK could be mixed, as higher retail sales may boost overall risk appetite but also fuel speculation of elevated interest rates.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) may see positive impact if retail sales are higher than expected.
Higher retail sales indicate a stronger economy, which could lead to increased energy consumption and benefit energy sector ETFs like XLE.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) may see positive impact if retail sales are higher than expected.
Higher retail sales indicate a stronger economy, which could lead to increased financial activity and benefit financial sector ETFs like XLF.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) may see positive impact if retail sales are lower than expected.
Lower retail sales indicate a weaker economy, which could lead to increased investment in defensive sectors and benefit consumer staples sector ETFs like XLP.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) may see positive impact if retail sales are lower than expected.
Lower retail sales indicate a weaker economy, which could lead to increased investment in defensive sectors and benefit utilities sector ETFs like XLU.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) may see positive impact if retail sales are lower than expected.
Lower retail sales indicate a weaker economy, which could lead to increased investment in defensive sectors and benefit health care sector ETFs like XLV.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) may see positive impact if retail sales are higher than expected.
Higher retail sales indicate a stronger economy, which could lead to increased consumer spending and benefit consumer discretionary sector ETFs like XLY.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80