3 Scenarios We See Happening Ahead Of This Wednesday's Feds Rate Decision & Powell's Language
Portfolio Pulse from John Chang
The market is fully expecting a 25bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week. The market's reaction will depend on the language of the statement and the tone of Jerome Powell. Three scenarios are considered: a dovish hike could see SPY retest 456 (55% probability), a hawkish hike could see SPY drop below 443 (35% probability), and a slim chance (10% probability) that the FOMC signals the end of the rate hiking cycle, which could see SPX rise 1% - 1.5%.
July 24, 2023 | 4:21 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) could see significant price movement depending on the outcome of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. A dovish hike could see SPY retest 456, while a hawkish hike could see it drop below 443.
The Federal Reserve's rate decision is a major market event that can significantly impact the price of assets like SPY. The direction of the price movement will depend on whether the Fed takes a dovish or hawkish stance.
CONFIDENCE 75
IMPORTANCE 100
RELEVANCE 100