June Nonfarm Payrolls Miss Estimates, Unemployment Drops But Wages Rise: Investors Assess Fed Path Ahead
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
The June jobs report showed a rise in nonfarm payrolls by 209,000, missing economists' expectations of 225,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.6%, while average hourly wages increased by 0.4%. The report led to a decrease in the likelihood of a second rate increase in September from 27% to 22%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was flat for the day, while the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) fell by 0.3%.

July 07, 2023 | 12:55 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was flat for the day following the release of the June jobs report.
The jobs report is a key indicator of the health of the economy, which can impact the stock market. However, the mixed signals from the report, with a miss on job growth but a drop in unemployment and a rise in wages, likely led to uncertainty in the market, resulting in a flat performance for SPY.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 50
RELEVANCE 50
NEGATIVE IMPACT
The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) fell by 0.3% following the release of the June jobs report.
The jobs report can impact the value of the dollar, as it influences expectations for interest rate changes. The miss on job growth likely led to decreased expectations for a rate hike, which would be negative for the dollar, resulting in a drop for UUP.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 50
RELEVANCE 50