U.S. Futures Price In 89% Chance Of 25 BPs Hike This Month After Jobs Data, Up Slightly From Before Data; U.S. Rate Futures Pare Odds Of Rate Hike In November To 39% Post-Jobs, Vs 45% Just Before
Portfolio Pulse from Happy Mohamed
U.S. futures are pricing in an 89% chance of a 25 basis points hike this month, up slightly from before the jobs data was released. However, the odds of a rate hike in November have been pared down to 39% post-jobs, compared to 45% just before the data was released.
July 07, 2023 | 12:40 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
The SPY ETF, which tracks the S&P 500, may be impacted by the changes in U.S. futures and the potential rate hikes. The increased likelihood of a rate hike this month could put pressure on the ETF, while the decreased odds for November could provide some relief.
The SPY ETF is likely to be influenced by changes in U.S. futures and interest rates. An increased likelihood of a rate hike this month could lead to a sell-off in equities, putting pressure on the ETF. However, the decreased odds for a rate hike in November could ease some of this pressure, potentially leading to a rebound in the ETF.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 75