Friday Showdown: Markets Brace For Fed's Preferred Inflation Data While July Interest Rate Hike Bets Surge
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
Investors are anticipating the release of the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for May. The market expects PCE inflation to decline from 4.4% YoY in April to 3.8% in May. Investors have increased their bets on a 25-basis-point hike by the Fed in July, with an 87% probability. If PCE inflation is higher than expected, the dollar could strengthen and investors might bet on a second rate hike in September. This could cause weakness in risky assets and rate-vulnerable markets, such as equities and real estate.
June 29, 2023 | 4:18 pm
News sentiment analysis
Sort by:
Ascending
NEUTRAL IMPACT
Amazon Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) was up 4.4% after the previous PCE data release. If the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock.
Amazon Inc. rose significantly after the previous PCE data release. However, if the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock due to potential rate hikes.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) was up 11.5% after the previous PCE data release. If the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock.
Broadcom Inc. rose significantly after the previous PCE data release. However, if the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock due to potential rate hikes.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) was up 4.1% after the previous PCE data release. If the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock.
American Express Company rose significantly after the previous PCE data release. However, if the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock due to potential rate hikes.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) was up 32% after the previous PCE data release. If the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock.
Marvell Technology Inc. rose significantly after the previous PCE data release. However, if the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock due to potential rate hikes.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:PDD) was up 19% after the previous PCE data release. If the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock.
PDD Holdings rose significantly after the previous PCE data release. However, if the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock due to potential rate hikes.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) rallied 2.6% after the previous PCE data release. If the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the ETF.
The Invesco QQQ Trust rallied after the previous PCE data release. However, if the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the ETF due to potential rate hikes.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) rose 1.3% after the previous PCE data release. If the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the ETF.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust rose after the previous PCE data release. However, if the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the ETF due to potential rate hikes.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) was up 4.7% after the previous PCE data release. If the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock.
Tesla Inc. rose significantly after the previous PCE data release. However, if the PCE inflation is higher than expected, it could lead to a weakening in the stock due to potential rate hikes.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70