Growing Yield Curve Inversion Raises Concerns Of Ignored Recession Warning in Stock Market
Portfolio Pulse from Piero Cingari
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has inverted further, with the yield on the two-year note exceeding the yield on the 10-year note by a full percentage point. This is the biggest level of inversion since March 9. The New York Federal Reserve’s recession probability model now predicts a 71% chance of a recession occurring during the next 12 months. Despite these warnings, the stock market remains strong with the Nasdaq 100 index and the S&P 500 entering a bull market.
June 28, 2023 | 9:10 pm
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POSITIVE IMPACT
Despite recession warnings, the Nasdaq 100 index, as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, rose 35% so far this year.
The rise in the QQQ index despite recession warnings indicates strong investor confidence in the stock market. This could potentially lead to further growth in the short term.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
Despite recession warnings, the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, entered a bull market after gaining more than 20% from its October 2022 lows.
The rise in the SPY index despite recession warnings indicates strong investor confidence in the stock market. This could potentially lead to further growth in the short term.
CONFIDENCE 90
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80