Recession Always Six Months Away? Analyst Rebukes Forecasters' Perpetual Economic Pessimism
Portfolio Pulse from AJ Fabino
Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, challenges the constant recession predictions, arguing that current economic indicators do not support the pessimistic outlook. Dutta suggests that investors maintain exposure to equities through broad market funds like VTI, while those with a bullish view on the labor market can consider ETFs like CIBR and XLK. For a more cautious stance, the TLT ETF could provide a safer haven.

June 26, 2023 | 3:07 pm
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NEUTRAL IMPACT
For investors with a cautious stance due to continued Fed actions, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) could provide a safer haven, as it often appreciates when investors anticipate slower economic growth.
Dutta acknowledges the Fed's belief that a period of below-trend growth is required to address inflation. Investing in TLT provides a safer haven for investors who are cautious due to continued Fed actions, as it often appreciates when investors anticipate slower economic growth.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
NEUTRAL IMPACT
Neil Dutta suggests investors maintain exposure to equities through broad market funds like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) as a way to navigate the uncertain economic landscape.
Dutta's analysis indicates that the constant recession predictions are not supported by current economic indicators. Investing in VTI allows investors to maintain exposure to equities without betting heavily on specific sectors, providing a balanced approach in the face of uncertainty.
CONFIDENCE 85
IMPORTANCE 70
RELEVANCE 80
POSITIVE IMPACT
For investors with a bullish view on the labor market, the First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) might be interesting, given Dutta's positive take on the tech sector's recovery.
Dutta highlights the deceleration of layoffs in the tech industry and the steady employment growth as positive indicators for the sector. Investing in CIBR provides exposure to the cybersecurity industry, which could benefit from the tech sector's recovery.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70
POSITIVE IMPACT
Investors with a bullish view on the labor market can consider the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), given Dutta's positive take on the tech sector's recovery.
Dutta's analysis highlights the deceleration of layoffs in the tech industry and the steady employment growth as positive indicators for the sector. Investing in XLK provides exposure to the technology sector, which could benefit from the tech sector's recovery.
CONFIDENCE 80
IMPORTANCE 60
RELEVANCE 70